Predictive Commerce: Expert Tips from Advertising Team Lead, Asad Waheed

As summer Prime Day approaches, there is an increased pressure for brands to show up early, act smart, and outmaneuver the competition. In this Buy Box Experts edition of Ask Our Experts, our Advertising Team Lead, Asad Waheed breaks down how Predictive Commerce is reshaping retail media strategy. From forecasting intent to shaping full-funnel campaigns with tools like Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC) and Search Query Performance, these insights will show you how to move from reactive to proactive.

How do you define Predictive Commerce in the context of retail media and high-stakes events like Amazon Prime Day?How can it help brands gain insights into ad campaign performance or audience behavior before a single dollar is spent?

Predictive Commerce is forecasting shopper behavior before it fully forms. Instead of waiting to bid when someone starts searching, we use behavioral signals like dwell time, add-to-cart activity, repeat product views, and category-level browsing to anticipate intent before it becomes action. And on Prime Day that level of foresight gives brands a serious edge. You're not just competing for keywords or fighting over the same placement. You're showing up before the shopper even opens Amazon. 

Where does Predictive Commerce fit within a full-funnel marketing strategy?

Predictive Commerce is not just a top-of-funnel play. It shines as more of a “full-funnel accelerator”. At the awareness stage, it helps you identify shoppers who are warming up to your category, even before they type in a single search. These are the "pre-intent" users, i.e., people who are showing subtle signals like browsing related categories, engaging with similar ASINs, or lingering on product pages. 

Then, in the mid-funnel, Predictive Commerce helps sharpen your targeting. Your creatives, your offers, and your ad spend- they’re all hitting the audiences who are most likely to convert soon, not just someday. You're not just targeting “shoppers.” You're targeting momentum. 

Plus, this strategy doesn’t stop post-conversion. Predictive signals help you re-engage new-to-brand customers based on affinity trends, replenishment cycles, or next-likely product interest. 

For example, if someone bought hiking boots during Prime Day, you could anticipate cross-sell opportunities, maybe hydration packs or trail gear based on historical AMC patterns. So, instead of viewing marketing as an  “upper” or “lower” funnel, it’s time to start thinking in terms of intent layers, and Predictive Commerce fuels each one. It turns your funnel from a static path into a dynamic, signal-powered growth engine.

Retargeting is often reactive—but Predictive Commerce aims to be proactive. How can brands evolve their retargeting strategies into true intent forecasting ahead of Prime Day?

Retargeting is like texting someone after they’ve already left the party. Predictive Commerce is seeing that someone might go and send them a ride before they even ask. 

 Here’s how you move from reactive to predictive:

• Start with last year’s high-intent audience; the people who browsed, added to cart, or circled around products in the two to three weeks before Prime Day.
• Model this year’s audiences against that behavior and then activate early.
• Use DSP and Sponsored Display to reach them before the official buying window opens.

That’s the mindset shift from chasing to forecasting. The brands that win on Prime Day aren’t reacting. They’re already in motion. A pro-tip is to use Search Query Performance (SQP) to analyze last year’s Add-to-Cart-to-Purchase and Conversion Rate patterns from the two weeks leading up to Prime Day. This gives you a solid benchmark to identify when and where intent peaked and helps you spot those signals earlier this year.

How can Predictive Commerce enhance early-stage campaign efforts? If a brand is just now realigning closer to Prime Day, what practical steps can they still take to leverage predictive insights?

If you’re close to Prime Day, you’re not too late, but you do need to move with precision. This is the moment to shift from broad planning to high-impact prioritization. Start by mining your historical signals. Use AMC to run a look-back analysis and identify the behavioral traits of last year’s highest-converting audiences. Don’t just focus on demographics, focus on behaviors like page dwell time, basket building, and repeat product views. These are the signals that quietly forecast intent. Next, move to activation. Use DSP or Sponsored Display to build audiences that mirror those patterns and start engaging them now. The goal is to warm them up before the Prime Day surge, when competition spikes and CPCs start climbing. 

Finally, refresh your creatives. This is where predictive becomes persuasive. Build assets, especially video or lifestyle formats that speak directly to the anticipated needs or affinities of your audience segments. It’s not about chasing what worked last year; it’s about showing up with relevance before they even start searching. Think of it as predictive triage: surface your hottest intent signals, shape the narrative early, and deploy while the cost of attention is still in your favor.

How can brands use Predictive Commerce to maintain momentum—both on the day of Prime Day and in the weeks following during the lookback window?What signals or audience behaviors should marketers focus on post-event?

Prime Day doesn’t actually end when the deals do. The halo effect is real, and if you’re paying attention, there’s a ton of value left on the table in the days and weeks after.   

During Prime Day itself, it’s all about staying agile. Use AMC to spot which audience segments are heating up in real time, who’s clicking, who’s viewing multiple times, and who’s bouncing between products. Then shift the budget on the fly using DSP, SD, or SB to meet that momentum. Don’t overthink it, just follow the signals and lean into what’s working while it’s working. 

After Prime Day, it’s game on for anyone who is engaged but hasn’t converted. That’s your warmest audience. Retarget the cart abandoners, the window shoppers, and the folks who hovered but didn’t pull the trigger. You already did the hard part, but it’s about finishing the play. 

Also, don’t forget about your New-to-Brand audience. These are fresh faces. Build lookalike audiences based on their behavior and use that as your base for post-event campaigns loyalty offers, Subscribe & Save, and even light cross-sells based on what people typically buy next. 

An extra move is to go into AMC and look at affinity patterns. Did Prime Day buyers also show interest in related categories like accessories, giftables, or seasonal gear? That’s your next opportunity. It’s not about guessing what they’ll want next, but it’s about recognizing the signals they’re already giving off. 

At the end of the day, Predictive Commerce isn’t just about winning the moment. It’s about stretching that moment into more momentum. Keep listening to your data, keep showing up with relevance, and you’ll keep the flywheel spinning long after Prime Day is over. 

What’s your advice to brands who want to apply Predictive Commerce principles now, even if they're midway through their Prime Day planning?

If you’re mid-way through your Prime Day planning, now’s the time to tighten your PPC/DSP game using predictive signals. 

Start with your data. Looking back at last year’s Prime Day performance, especially your CTR, CVR and Cart Abandoners, and ATC to Purchase Ratio. These are gold when it comes to optimizing keyword strategy and building smarter audiences. 

Shift your focus from high-volume keywords to high-intent signals. Instead of overbidding the obvious, lean into Sponsored Products and Sponsored Display targeting people who are already browsing adjacent categories or products. These are the shoppers most likely to convert with the right nudge. 

Use AMC and DSP to model audiences based on behavior and not just clicks. Then apply that insight directly to your bidding strategy. This way, your PPC budget isn’t just reactive, but it’s proactively targeting momentum before your competitors even see it coming. 

And don't underestimate creative. Even small updates to Sponsored Brands Video or lifestyle content can make your ads feel more relevant to current shopper behavior especially if you're speaking to what people are about to want, not just what they wanted last year. 

You don’t need to start over you just need to shift from reactive to predictive and proactive. And that’s exactly what wins Prime Day. 

Prime Day success isn’t just about who spends the most—it’s about who plans the smartest. Predictive Commerce gives brands the ability to anticipate shopper behavior, activate insights early, and stay agile throughout the entire event. Whether you’re ahead of the curve or just shifting gears, there’s still time to layer in data-driven strategy that delivers real results.