July 2025 Newsletter: 3 Predictive Ad Strategies to Maximize Post–Prime Day Performance

Once the storm of Prime Day prepping and purchasing subsides, the brands that thrive are those that anticipate what comes next. In a recent conversation with Asad Waheed, Advertising Lead at BBE, we explored how a Predictive Commerce strategy helps brands leverage Prime Day sales data to inform future campaigns.

Predicting purchase behavior isn’t just useful during the planning stages—it’s equally critical in the post-event phase. Prime Day brings a surge of new-to-brand shoppers and re-engaged customers across the funnel. By analyzing these signals, brands can forecast trends, identify high-intent audiences, and refine targeting strategies in time for Fall Prime Day and the holiday season. A predictive mindset now sets the stage for even stronger performance later.

Utilize the Tools in Your Amazon Arsenal

Prime Day isn’t just about sales—it’s your clearest window into future shopper behavior, even after the event is over. The easiest way to see through this window clearly is to use the tools Amazon has already built to help sellers capture multiple customer journey perspectives. From tracking what specific audience segments are inspired to click in, to analyzing the products that converted customers will come back for. Predictive success yielded from Prime Day data is all about spotting the buyer before your competitors even know they’re shopping.

At Spreetail and Buy Box Experts, we rely on a strategic stack of Amazon tools built for insight and foresight when formulating strategies for our brand partners:

• Search Query Performance (SQP): gives you a full funnel look from impression to purchase. Use it to identify high-converting search terms and build predictive audiences around them.
• Brand Analytics: reveals market share shifts, competitor movement, and shopper loyalty—crucial inputs for forecasting.
• Product Opportunity Explorer (POE): lets you spot emerging demand and unmet needs before they break out.
• Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC): can build audience segments based on last year’s Prime Day converters or model high-intent behavior patterns. Think: basket co-occurrence, repeat views, and category engagement over time.
• Sponsored Display’s Audience Insights: offers powerful early-warning signals for pre-purchase behavior. Starting small and testing behavioral audiences, validating with AMC, then scaling with DSP is a way to achieve more targeted results.

Use TACOS, Not Just RoAS

While ROAS measurements get all the attention, they only show the surface. True Prime Day success comes from looking at the complete picture with TACoS (Total Advertising Cost of Sales). By measuring your ad spend against all sales (including organic), TACoS will tell you if your paid efforts are lifting your long-term rankings, not just spiking short-term wins.

Prime Day is also your moment to see if you’ve expanded your customer base with current efforts. Tracking New-to-Brand (NTB) percentages helps you see if you’re growing your audience or just circling the same crowd. If you can also target keywords where you’re not yet on page one, you can turn paid momentum into long-lasting organic traffic.

Don’t forget to monitor repeat purchases, either. Prime Day might bring a surge of new customers, but the real win is getting them to stick and creating loyalists who come back even after the discounts fade.

Analyze and Act Swiftly

Having data is only the starting point; operationalizing it quickly is where competitive advantage is won. The most agile brands blend first-party brand intelligence with third-party technical execution, creating a closed feedback loop that’s both brand-aligned and performance-optimized.

Your in-house team holds critical insights: brand positioning, customer journey mapping, and content nuance. But when it comes to translating post-Prime Day signals into scalable action, here’s where technical expertise is essential:

• Amazon Marketing Cloud (AMC): Build custom audience segments using multi-dimensional behavioral signals, such as path-to-purchase sequencing, basket co-occurrence, brand halo effects, and event-based attribution models. Use SQL queries to define high-value audience clusters based on dwell time, product sequence views, and campaign exposure frequency.
• Demand-Side Platform (DSP): Adjust bids and budget allocations in near real-time based on audience overlap, inventory availability, and frequency saturation. Leverage AMC-modeled segments in your DSP to suppress low-intent repeaters or to upsell NTB purchasers through product affinity modeling.
• Multi-Signal Intent Modeling: Combine Sponsored Display interaction data (repeat views, scroll depth, add-to-carts without conversion) with video ad engagement (completion rate, click-through, mute/unmute actions) to triangulate higher intent audiences for sequential messaging. Multi-signal intent modeling refers to combining multiple behavioral signals across Amazon’s advertising and analytics ecosystem to better understand shopper intent and to build smarter audience segments or campaign strategies from that insight.
• Category Intelligence via POE and SQP: Use Product Opportunity Explorer to monitor sub-category white space and product attribute gaps. With Search Query Performance, quantify rising keyword trends, CTR-to-conversion drop-offs, and identify branded vs. generic term shifts post-event.

Speed matters. Predictive commerce isn’t just about knowing what your customers will do next, but it’s about executing the right response before your competitors do. That’s why leading brands integrate:

• Automated performance alerts triggered via AMC outputs
• Scheduled SQL queries to refresh key segments weekly
• Cross-channel attribution overlays between AMC and external CRM/DMP data

The takeaway: Strategic acceleration post-Prime Day requires a hybrid model, brand-side intuition and narrative, paired with data science, programmatic fluency, and platform-level expertise. This kind of agile infrastructure enables brands to compress the cycle from insight to action, turning Prime Day from a sales event into a predictive flywheel for Q4 and beyond.

Introducing: Spreetail’s Listing Doctor

As marketplace algorithms grow more advanced, optimized content has become essential for visibility and conversions. Keywords and product imagery play a critical role in helping shoppers find, understand, and trust your products. But managing hundreds of SKUs without disrupting your sales momentum is a challenge that often goes far beyond routine upkeep. For most teams, identifying and fixing listing or catalog issues requires manual checks across, delaying detection by 2–4 days and resolution by over a week.

Enter Spreetail’s Listing Doctor—a smart tool that not only tracks content changes across your listings but also monitors performance, helping you stay ahead of costly disruptions and protect your bottom line.